Severe Weather Discussion for May 23 – 30, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for May 23 – 30, 2011.
Issued:  05/22/2011.

Highlights:

–  Active severe weather day is likely on Monday.

–  Active and potentially significant severe weather day is likely on Tuesday.

–  Thunderstorms are possible late Thursday into Friday.

–  Temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Monday – Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday, low 80s Friday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  > 75%
–  Storm Chase:  > 75%

Discussion:

All forecasting efforts are on the upcoming medium to high-end events this week.  A special discussion will be forthcoming later.

Followed NWS Norman on temperatures with no modifications.

Models are bouncing all over the place for Thursday-Sunday, so I don’t hold much hope that the forecast will verify.  Climo is probably the best way to go.  Not sure if I agree with the models on a big ridge over Oklahoma, but we’ll see.

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