Severe Weather Discussion for May 23 – 30, 2011.
– Active severe weather day is likely on Monday.
– Active and potentially significant severe weather day is likely on Tuesday.
– Thunderstorms are possible late Thursday into Friday.
– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Monday – Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday, low 80s Friday – Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: > 75%
– Storm Chase: > 75%
All forecasting efforts are on the upcoming medium to high-end events this week. A special discussion will be forthcoming later.
Followed NWS Norman on temperatures with no modifications.
Models are bouncing all over the place for Thursday-Sunday, so I don’t hold much hope that the forecast will verify. Climo is probably the best way to go. Not sure if I agree with the models on a big ridge over Oklahoma, but we’ll see.by