SPC Issues Moderate Risk for 5/11/11

Some strong wording in the SPC Outlook for Wednesday.


   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF CNTRL KS AND
   CNTRL OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SWD INTO
   CNTRL TX...
   
   ...PLAINS...
   ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
   PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
   AFTN.  A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL EJECT ENE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   FEATURE...MIGRATING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX EARLY IN THE DAY.  IN THE
   LOWER LEVELS...A LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER SWRN KS AND TRAVEL ENE
   INTO CNTRL KS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO
   SCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX BY EVENING WHILE A FRONT EXISTS
   ENE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN NEB AND INTO NWRN WI.
   
   SLY LLVL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000+ EXISTING THROUGHOUT THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLAINS.  ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   PROBLEMATIC AS STRONG PCPN SIGNAL HAS EXISTED FOR A COUPLE DAYS FROM
   CNTRL/NRN TX INTO ERN OK...SERN KS AND THE MO OZARKS.  WHILE
   COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...MODEST MID-LEVEL
   SWLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS
   TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD
   TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   MEANWHILE...NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE WILL PERCOLATE NW
   OF THE E TX/OK CLOUD SHIELD AND RESULT IN MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
   FROM THE TX BIG COUNTRY NWD INTO CNTRL KS.  AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT
   FALLS AND COOLING ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SPREAD
   NE...TSTMS WILL INITIATE.  FIRST STORMS WILL FORM NE OF THE TRIPLE
   POINT/FRONT ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND NCNTRL/NWRN KS AND THEN FARTHER
   SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND TX BIG COUNTRY AREA BY LATE AFTN. 
   INCREASING MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHERLIES IN
   NEB/NRN KS RESULTING IN MESSY STORM MODES.  STILL...BACKED NEAR SFC
   FLOW VCNTY THE LEE LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW
   TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.  FARTHER S...MORE CROSS-COMPONENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL RESULT IN LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.
   
   STRONGER SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENE
   INTO ERN NEB AND IA OVERNIGHT AS SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES.  STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL.  FARTHER S...ACTIVITY MAY
   NOT BE AS LONG-LIVED AS PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSES TO THE N
   AND CAP INCREASES IN THE INFLOW LAYER.
   
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmailby feather
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *