Severe Weather Discussion for May 9 – 15, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for May 9 – 15, 2011.
Issued:  05/08/2011.

Highlights:

–  One or two severe thunderstorms are possible in western/central Oklahoma Monday and Tuesday.  Primary threats are large hail and damaging winds.  Monday will likely be quiet.

–  Severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday across much of Oklahoma.

–  Showers are possible late Friday into Saturday.

–  Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday – Tuesday, mid 80s Wednesday, near 80F Thursday, mid 70s Friday-Saturday, low 70s Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  75%
–  Storm Chase:  > 75%

Discussion:

Forecasting efforts today are on the large western U.S. trof progged to move eastward into Oklahoma on Wednesday.  Special discussions are ongoing for this system, so will not recap those details here.

As the system moves by late Wednesday into Thursday a blocking pattern develops across the lower 48/Atlantic.  Models generally agree on a closed low off the Pacific Coast and with a system just east of Oklahoma.  This should place us in northerly flow.  While a cool down is expected, it won’t arrive until the weekend.  Temperatures will be seasonable the latter half of the week either way.

Temperatures will be very hot, July readings Monday – Tuesday, cooling a little as the upper system approaches.  Northerly flow will take even more of the edge off Thursday into the weekend.  I undercut temps a little bit this weekend given expected rainfall.  Due to the evolving blocking pattern, forecast confidence Friday and beyond is low.

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