Severe Weather Discussion for May 2 – 8, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for May 2 – 8, 2011.
Issued:  05/01/2011.

Highlights:

–  Temperatures will be in the upper 50s on Monday, upper 60s Tuesday, mid 70s Wednesday – Thursday, near 80F Friday, mid 80s Saturday – Sunday.

–  Showers and thunderstorms are likely in Oklahoma on Monday.

–  Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday-Saturday in western Oklahoma.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%

Discussion:

Somewhat quiet conditions are expected this week as low amplitude flow develops across the U.S.  Blocking is noted at 0 degrees right now and there are model indications of additional blocking in the western Atlantic.  These developments make forecasting beyond D3 rather difficult but for now, will go with current trends and one that we have seen for the past few months.

Southern stream shortwave trof will move across the state on Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible as it traverses across the state.  Primary area to get rain will be southern Oklahoma since the cold front has pushed into Texas and moisture return will be limited.  Once this system moves east, atmosphere transitions to lower amplitude but still progressive with short wavelengths between systems.  Two more systems will move across the northern parts of the U.S. through D7 and little to no impacts are expected across Oklahoma.  A dryline is expected to develop by Friday across western Oklahoma as moisture returns to the state.  Stronger 500mb flow aloft may graze northern parts of the dryline with potential for organized storms given high CAPE values.  CIN values look to remain high limiting timing to mainly late afternoon.

More amplified flow may develop beyond D7 but models are in disagreement and the GFS is somewhat useless.  HPC is siding with the ECMWF but even it beyond D7 has to be questioned.

Temperatures aren’t too difficult this week as a warming trend will commence Tuesday and continue through next weekend.  Models do show a cold front on Sunday, so the mid 80s I have could bust.

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