Severe Weather Discussion for April 25th – May 1st, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for April 25th – May 1st, 2011.
Issued:  04/25/2011.

Highlights:

–  Severe thunderstorms are likely across eastern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and evening.

–  Showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern Oklahoma on Saturday.

–  Temperatures will be near 70F Tuesday, upper 60s Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday-Friday, near 80F Saturday, upper 60s Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  25%
–  Storm Chase:  5%

Discussion:

Well, not much better on on D7 temperatures, but I’ll take the hit with the wonderful rainfall central Oklahoma received.  Eastern got a lot more and they’re probably a little tired of it.  Unfortunately drought conditions continue in western Oklahoma where very little rain fell.

There is a decent chance of rain across parts of the state on Tuesday as the final shortwave trof moves into the region and ejects the broad trof eastward.  Quite a wild ride weather wise with several high-impact events, including one this evening in Arkansas.  Tuesday has the potential to produce more significant severe weather and SPC has a moderate risk posted for far southeast Oklahoma.  While special discussions are probably warranted, I’m covering it here and don’t see a need to go to that level.  SPC has a great handle on it and has been spot on the past several days.  After Tuesday, we go quiet for several days as another trof moves into the region on Saturday.  Models agree that the northern shortwave trof/closed low will outrace the southern system and result in an early frontal passage late Saturday.  As such, storm chances with this system appear low but went ahead with POPs in case something can get going.  Main severe chances are Tuesday and after that quiet through the period.  Time of year points to additional severe chances next week, but we’ll see if a western U.S. system can develop.  Gulf moisture remains and only need a little encouragement to bring it northward.

I didn’t get fancy with temperatures at all.  This week looks quite pleasant and typical for late April.

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