Updated — April 14th Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for April 14, 2011.
Issued: 04/13/2011.

Highlights:

– Active severe weather day will occur across central/eastern Oklahoma with some significant severe weather likely. Tornadoes, destructive hail, and damaging winds are all expected.

Discussion:

00z NAM continues prior trends of rapidly intensifying a 500mb shortwave trof into a negative tilt trof/closed low on Thursday. This is similar to May 10, 2010, although there are important differences. Anyway, not to get bogged down in that stuff, Thursday looks active. 00z NAM has backed off on the prior 850mb drying and the current run looks more reasonable. It does seemingly and erroneously lower temperatures Thursday afternoon just east of the dryline. This is likely due to clouds and maybe some attempt to generate QPF. The model has almost no CIN in this area, which also looks suspicious. Since the system will be intensifying during the day, models are likely still grasping the ultimate outcome. The models do agree on a dryline location near I-35 Thursday afternoon and really is no reason to question this outcome, although experience still indicates the dryline may be a tad slower given that the low will still be west of the state at this time. Storm initiation is likely by 4pm, just don’t see it waiting much longer. Several well-timed jet maxes will impinge on the dryline around this time and should result in rapid storm development. 0-1km shear looks a little lower initially but does improve especially after dark. The current placement of the Day 2 seems to account for the likelihood of long-lived supercells and a substantial threat of early evening through midnight tornadoes. There is some concern for OKC Metro due to the close proximity of the dryline and subsequent impacts during rush hour. The threat for Tulsa will be later, say 7-8pm and will likely be significant.

SPC’s Day 2 looks good and I see no reason for a high risk at this point. Although given my forecast score this week, I’ll probably bust that one too. But it isn’t for lack of trying.

I’ll try to get one of these out in the morning, but I already have two conference calls and a variety of other work related duties to carry out.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part OK (04/14, Day 1):

– Slight: 100%
– Moderate: 100%
– High: 10%

Chase Status:

– Level 2 – looking to chase on Thursday, initial area is just north of Oklahoma City to play north-central OK. Storm motion won’t be extreme, so dryline location is the main issue for our chase target.

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