Severe Weather Discussion for April 14, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for April 14, 2011.
Issued:  04/13/2011.

Highlights:

–  Active severe weather day is likely across central/eastern Oklahoma on Thursday.  Tornadoes, destructive hail, and damaging winds are all expected.

Discussion:

Latest model guidance and SPC Day 2 hint at a very interesting weather setup for tomorrow.  Despite my better efforts from the weekly discussion, it certainly looks ripe for Thursday afternoon across a large part of central/eastern Oklahoma.  By far, eastern OK will get the brunt of the impacts.  Models have reversed the trends seen this season and are now under amplifying systems.  With that said, the current 12z NAM, 00z ECMWF, 06z GFS in general look good.  They all develop a closed low across southern Kansas with robust moisture return across central/eastern Oklahoma.  Precip remains minimal during the morning hours with expected strong surface heating across the threat area.  Winds are quite impressive at all levels and with excellent directional shear. NAM creates an odd CAPE sink across south-central Oklahoma due to lower 850mb dewpoints.  These don’t tend to verify, so this is ignored.  CAPE values are AOA 2000 J/Kg with upper 70s to mid 80s heating east of the dryline.  The big question will be, how far east will the dryline surge.  Current data and NWS offices place the dryline very near I-35 and this appears reasonable.  Storm motion appears to be slower than prior events and this will make intercepts much easier.

For now working through the motion of things lined up to chase and current spot maybe Oklahoma City or a little east.  This will change depending on dryline location.  We will opt for central/north central and northeast Oklahoma as the main chase area at this point.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK (valid:  04/14 Day 1):

Slight:  100%
Moderate:  100%
High:  5%

Chase Status:

Level 2 – very interested in a chase tomorrow.

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