Severe Weather Discussion for April 11 – 17, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for April 11 – 17, 2011.
Valid:  04/11/2011.

Highlights:

–  A few severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Oklahoma on Thursday.  Showers are likely in northern Oklahoma.  Slight chance of showers on Sunday.

–  Temperatures will be in the mid 70s today, upper 70s Tuesday – Wednesday, upper 60s Thursday, near 70F Friday, and mid 70s Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  20%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%

Discussion:

Upper system is departing the region today with minimal impacts on Oklahoma.  Next system is expected on Thursday which will intensify as it moves across Oklahoma, like so many of its predecessors.  06z GFS shows moisture return ahead of this system across eastern Oklahoma.  SPC seems rather excited about the potential, but will go 20% on the severe chance for now.  Even if a medium-end event develops, the spatial impacts/timing will be rather minimal.  Aside from the severe threat in eastern Oklahoma, showers are possible in northern OK with this system.  After it leaves, a mild mid-April weekend looks on-tap.  06z GFS amplifies a wave near Oklahoma on Sunday and develops high QPF across the central/southern areas.  Given the ongoing extreme drought and tendency of the models to over-amplify waves (can’t believe I just typed that), I’m going with low POPs on Sunday to account for the potential.  Drought conditions are likely to worsen across the state if beneficial rainfall is not received within the next few weeks.  Wildfire concerns will continue to be the primary weather issue this week.  It is also worth noting that Oklahoma City has received 0.03 inches of rain since March 1st, which puts us -3.77 below normal.  As noted above, the trend is not going to reverse itself anytime soon.

Followed models through Friday and warmed things above NWS/models on the weekend due to the ongoing drought.  Either way, looks like a pleasant April week for the state.

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