Severe Weather Discussion for April 4 – 10, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for April 4 – 10, 2011.
Issued:  04/03/2011.

Highlights:

–  Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and/or Sunday across Oklahoma.  A medium-end event is possible.

–  Temperatures will be in the low 60s Monday,  mid 70s Tuesday, near 80F Wednesday, low 80s Thursday-Saturday, and near 80F Sunday.

–  Fire danger is likely to be very high all week with extreme conditions Tuesday and Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  50%
–  Storm Chase:  50%

Discussion:

Long day due to ongoing significant wildfires, so this is going to be short.  Upper system will move across the state on Monday and a cold front will race southeastward through the state by early Monday.  This will “cool” things off for a day before a return to warmer weather on Tuesday.  Much of the week will see above normal temperatures with increasing moisture by Friday.  Incoming cold front will not cause significant modification of Gulf air.  18z NAM shows 70F dewpoints remaining in the central and southern Gulf as the surface ridge moves through the southeast states.

Pattern shift occurs again by Wednesday as a longwave trof starts to take shape out west.  A weakening subtropical low will shot northeast across Oklahoma on Thursday but provide little more than cloud cover.

18z GFS and 12z ECMWF are in good agreement regarding the development and subsequent ejection of a strong western U.S. trof.  GFS has consistently progged dewpoints greater than 65F across Oklahoma with deep layer moisture to 850mb likely.  Temperatures should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with an expected cap (EML).  GFS has CIN values near -30 J/Kg and higher during peak heating, indicating that a cap breach is likely.  It also develops QPF along the dryline.  Given expected wind speeds and currently a well-timed 250mb jet max, Saturday could be an active severe weather day.  Depending on the ultimate movement/ejection of the upper system, Sunday could also be an active day.  I’d certainly think that SPC will highlight parts of Oklahoma for D6 on the morning D4-8 product and potentially D7 but not sure if I’d go that far yet.  Special discussions will likely be needed starting Wednesday if current model progs continue.

Did not forecast temperatures, went with OUN.

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