Severe Weather Discussion for March 7 – 13, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for March 7 – 13, 2011.
Issued:  03/06/2011.

Highlights:

–  A few severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday late afternoon and evening across east-central and southwest Oklahoma.  Primary threats are marginally severe hail and strong winds.

–  Rain and a few thunderstorms are possible Sunday across Oklahoma.

–  Temperatures will be in the low 60s Monday, low 70s Tuesday, low 50s Wednesday, near 60F Thursday, low 70s Friday, low 60s Saturday, and upper 50s Sunday.

–  Time change on Sunday, move clocks forward one hour at 2:00am.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  15%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Winter Precip:  5%

Discussion:

Primary feature of interest this week will move into the state late Tuesday.  Ahead of this medium wavelength trof, moisture will return to the state as a surface low forms just west of Oklahoma.  Temperatures will warm on Monday with a much more rapid warm-up on Tuesday.  A dryline will likely surge to near I-35 by mid-afternoon with severe thunderstorms possible east of this feature.  Back west, warm temperatures and dry air will create fire danger.  I may be too low on Tuesday’s temperatures, but low 70s looks good at this point.  As this system shifts east, another Canadian surface high will move across the area, dropping temperatures into the low 50s.  A slow recovery will commence on Thursday with a decent warm-up Friday and Saturday.  GFS turned on the precipitation on Sunday with a weak wave and moisture return.  ECMWF has this feature also, so went ahead with precipitation chances.  Overall only low-end weather is expected this week.  Although the going forecast has some chance of light snow late Tuesday.

Didn’t get fancy with temperatures again this week.  I think Tuesday and Friday will end up warmer than forecast, not that anyone complains about it.  Sunday also seems problematic depending on how the forecast evolves.

Models consistently show another system around the 16th/17th.  GFS has been shifting around with it, but not a shocker given the limitation of deterministic models.  Since storm season begins around the time period, will need to be on the watch for severe weather potential.

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