Winter Weather Discussion for February 8-9, 2011.
– Winter Storm Watch much of western and central Oklahoma Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon, 4-8 inches of snow.
– Winter storm likely to impact much of Oklahoma. Potential does exist for significant snowfall accumulations.
00z NAM agrees with prior runs but still remains at odds with the GFS. It is seemingly closer to the ECMWF than the GFS. As such, it may be the best solution, but since the two models remain in different camps, neither can be discounted. The overall setup remains the same. A shortwave trof will drop southward along the east side of the eastern Pacific ridge and by Tuesday afternoon will be moving over the four corners area. This system looks to be positively to neutral tilted as it translates eastward across the state early Wednesday. Prior run of the NAM had the 700mb low closing off over the state, but now this doesn’t happen until the system is in far eastern Oklahoma. The latter part is the main difference from the GFS, which weakens the system as it moves eastward across Oklahoma. Either run would lay down a nice swath of snow across the state with the NAM favoring HWY 412 for max snowfall and the GFS I-40/HWY 3 southeast. Just read an alert from HPC about being careful using the NAM. So, I guess for now sitting on the fence is the best place to be! Either way, a medium-end event appears likely and I’ll continue discussions until models prove otherwise. Oh and prior to last week’s spanking of 20 inches of snow, this would be significant. It is all relative.
BTW – cold air appears to be a given as the Arctic tap remains open.
Time sensitive image from the HPC with QPF amounts.