Extremely Dangerous Winter Storm IMMINENT – Prepare Now

Very strong wording from the NWS Forecast Discussion – This is an extremely dangerous situation unfolding.

From the forecast discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

.DISCUSSION…
POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND… COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW
APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX
ZONES… UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS…

AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE
-15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
MONDAY… ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE
THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME
IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING
NECESSARY PROVISIONS… AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME
POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER
AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO
FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION… ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE
PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG
WINDS… WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER
LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING
SAID… WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED
ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING… WE
MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009… AND
FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE
AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT… OR WIND
CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.

STANDARD INITIALIZATION ROUTINE INVOKED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME LOW POPS EVENTUALLY FOR ANOTHER
EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT FOCUS IS SQUARELY ON THE
EARLY-WEEK EVENT.

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One Response to Extremely Dangerous Winter Storm IMMINENT – Prepare Now

  1. Dan says:

    thanks for the heads up guys. Great work

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