Severe Weather Discussion for January 24 – January 30, 2011

Severe Weather Discussion for January 24 – January 30, 2011.
Valid:  01/24/2011.

Highlights:

–  Temperatures will be in the low 50s today, near 50F Tuesday-Wednesday, low 50s Thursday, low 60s Friday, upper 40s Saturday, near 40F Sunday.

Probabilities:

–  Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma:  < 5%
–  Storm Chase:  < 5%
–  Winter Precip:  5%

Discussion:

What a difference a day makes!  Sunday’s model runs indicated a strong cold front on Saturday but recent models prog this feature to move through the area on Monday, especially the ECMWF.  This appears due to the handling of the northern jet stream and a shortwave trof progged to drop southeast out of Canada at the end of the period.  The ECMWF is likely the better solution, but lucky for me the strong cold front is at D8.

There isn’t much to talk about this week.  Semi-permanent ridge will remain in-place across the eastern Pacific again this week allowing for moderate temperatures and Friday looks very nice across the state.  Several shortwave trofs will move across the state but none of them are expected to have enough moisture to cause any problems.  As such, the drought continues and see little relief in-sight.  GFS total QPF (384 hr) looks very low.

Followed NAM MOS through Thursday and GFS Friday/Saturday.  I did go with OUN on Sunday to account for a possible backdoor cold front.  I’m not believing the GFS’s surface pattern, but going with lower temperatures isn’t a bad thing.  If the ECMWF verifies, Monday will be colder.  GFS 384 hr run shows the eastern Pacific ridge to remain in-place the entire period.  At this point I see no reason to go with POPs but I’m not stupid enough to go all pops zero either.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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