Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 10 – 16, 2011.
Valid: 01/09/2011.

Highlights:

– Snow is like Monday, ending Monday night. Main area will be
northern Oklahoma where 2-4 inches may fall. Ongoing snow in southern
Oklahoma will end during the next few hours. Cold temperatures will
settled into the state late Monday. Rain/snow is possible on Saturday
and Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 30s Monday, near 20F Tuesday, upper
20s Wednesday, near 40F Thursday, upper 40s Friday, mid 30s Saturday,
and low 40s Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 20%

Discussion:

Upper system moving through Texas will continue northeast and be
absorbed into the eastern U.S. system. Cold air filtering in from the
north has allowed an expansive area of winter precipitation, which
will end later tonight. A northern stream closed low will develop on
Monday and allow for precipitation across northern Oklahoma.
Temperatures will again be below freezing and snow is expected across
the area. Amounts should be in the 2-4 inch range, with limited
impacts.

Upper system moves east and an Arctic cold front blasts through the
region. Temperatures will plunge Monday night and remain below
freezing through early Thursday. The incoming cold air certainly
isn't what was expected a week ago. I guess a good thing and also a
lesson in how the models aren't perfect. Surface ridge shifts east on
Thursday allowing for a brief warmup. Models diverge on Saturday with
intra-model runs also in disagreement. I'm siding with the ECMWF
which brings two clipper waves through the state this weekend and a
cold front on Saturday. This is well ahead of the GFS which keeps
Saturday warm and Sunday cool, therefore I went the opposite.

I followed the NAM closely through Wednesday and modified MOS through Sunday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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