Severe Weather Discussion for December 13 – 19, 2010.
– Rain is possible Friday afternoon and evening, unfortunately not
much is expected.
– Temperatures will be in the low 40s on Monday, upper 40s Tuesday,
upper 50s Wednesday, mid 40s Thursday, near 50F Friday, mid 40s
Saturday, and near 50F Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 5%
Weather continues to be quiet around the region this week. Northwest
flow will give way to zonal flow by late in the week. A weak southern
stream shortwave trof will undercut the western U.S. ridge and
translate across the region on Friday. Models provide some QPF across
the region and would expect a little bit of rain. Temperatures should
be above freezing, so will keep snow chances low for this one. Other
than that, typical December weather is expected, albeit quiet.
Long range models show the ridge redeveloping this weekend with
warming temperatures. Another cold front is expect on Sunday, but I
went ahead with warmer temperatures as frontal passage may be later in
the day. Models appear to be having trouble with eastern Pacific
energy and the western U.S. ridge early next week, so no hints on what
the Christmas forecast will provide. Current trends would point to
slightly cooler than normal and dry, but I'm not betting the farm on it.
Stayed near the models for the most part this week, a few changes here/there.
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