Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 8 – 14, 2010.
Valid: 11/08/2010.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday into Friday. Severe
weather looks to be limited.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 70s on Monday, low 70s
Tuesday-Wednesday, upper 60s Thursday, mid 50's Friday, upper 50's
Saturday, and low 60's Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Decent chance for rain this week as a long wave trof develops to the
west of Oklahoma. The lead shortwave trof will lift northeast just to
the north of Oklahoma early Wednesday. This system will likely come
through dry as Gulf moisture will be in short supply. 18z NAM shows
dewpoints AOB 50F. With upper support rather removed away from the
region and marginal moisture, little is expected.

Next shortwave trof drops into the base of the western US longwave
trof on Thursday. Northward movement of prior system should result in
only a slight push on Gulf moisture. As such, decent moisture should
rapidly return to Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms are possible as
this system ejects northeast late Thursday and pushes a cold front
into the state. The third system this week appears to follow quickly
behind the second and create a much better chance for precipitation
due to isentropic lift. GFS seems a little high with QPF, but really
no reason to disagree. I hope the state receives the widespread one
inch rainfall the GFS shows, as we need it. Upper system moves by
late Friday with dry air moving into the region, ending precipitation
chances.

Followed NAM for first few periods and then GFS/ECMWF blend through
the weekend.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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