Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 1 – 7, 2010.
Valid: 11/01/2010.

Highlights:

– Showers are possible over southeast Oklahoma late Monday through Tuesday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 60s Monday, low 60s Tuesday, near
70F Wednesday, low 602 Thursday-Friday, mid 60s Saturday, near 70F
Sunday.

– Time change on 11/07/2010 at 2am, move clocks back one hour.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%

Discussion:

Southern stream shortwave trof will close off as it translates across
Oklahoma on Monday. This system will grab some moisture, resulting in
showers across southeast Oklahoma. Lack of decent moisture and
southeast movement of the upper system, should limit areal coverage
and amount of rainfall. On Thursday a longwave trof develops across
the eastern U.S. with a closed ridge to the west of Oklahoma. Ridging
extends northward into western Canada. The resulting northerly
mid-level flow across Oklahoma is a dry flow in winter, so all POPs
zero after Tuesday.

ECMWF and GFS appear in reasonable agreement through the week, so have
gone with the collective pattern and resultant surface temperatures.
Cold air is lacking in Canada, so while the northerly flow and cold
fronts will bring a chill nothing significant is expected. Upper
system shifts northwest on Saturday and the high moves into the
southeast U.S. on Sunday. Temperatures should warm-up on the backside
of the high.

Followed GFS for temperatures, I think NAM is a little warm on Wednesday.

Tomas continues to disturb the fish and will likely have limited
impacts to land critters. NHC's current forecast recurves Tomas in a
few days and takes it to the open Atlantic.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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