Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 25 – 31, 2010.
Valid: 10/24/2010.

Highlights:

– Slight chance of showers late Monday into early Tuesday.
Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday, mid 70s Tuesday, near 70F
Wednesday, low 70s Thursday-Friday, and mid 70s Saturday-Sunday.

– Fire danger will be very high on Monday and elevated Thursday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%

Discussion:

Active pattern will continue this week, although impacts on the region
will be limited to a cold front. Deep layer moisture will be swept
well south of the region on Monday as medium wavelength trof moves
through the northern U.S. The resulting deep surface low will create
very strong winds across Oklahoma but with moisture lacking, little
should happen. The main concern will be wildfires as vegetation is
going dormant and winds will be 20-30mph, gusting to 45mph. The wind
shift early Tuesday will shave a few degrees off the afternoon
temperature but little more until the cold air arrives on Wednesday.

Ridging in-wake of the trof on Monday should keep things quiet across
the region through the weekend. The ECMWF wants to bring in another
shortwave trof by Sunday with the GFS favoring Monday. Given the
recent pattern, I'm going to side with the GFS and keep POPs out on
Sunday. However, I have warmed things up some and may need to go
higher if southwest flow develops like the 18z GFS indicates. GFS
also indicates moisture return ahead of the system Monday, so the
slower timing would lead to thunderstorm chances in the next forecast
period.

Richard is inland and should move across part of the Yucatan during
the next few days. NHC forecasts very little to be left of it as
Richard moves into the Bay of Campeche.

Model MOS for this week seemed good and didn't deviate too much. I
think I should have gone upper 70s/near 80 next Sunday, but we'll see.
While a good part of the state got rain the past few days, drought
conditions do persist.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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