Severe Weather Discussion for October 18 – 24, 2010.
– Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Monday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorms are again possible late Thursday through Sunday. The
most likely time is Friday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.
– Temperatures will be in the mid 80s on Monday, low 70s Tuesday,
upper 70s Wednesday-Saturday, and near 80F Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%
Atmosphere appears finally ready to get into fall and provide some
rain. Models agree that northern stream ridging will continue across
the central U.S. much of the week while split flow continues. The
initially week southern jet will become much more active by next week.
Models differ on how this occurs, but the end result is the same.
Lead shortwave trof will take the southern route while a northern
stream shortwave trof rotates through the Great Lakes. The latter
system will push a cold front through Oklahoma late Monday into
Tuesday. Moisture return is expected to be limited with only 50-55F
in Texas. Isentropic lift should develop after the cold front passes,
allowing for rain chances through Tuesday. Model QPF numbers are less
than impressive for Tuesday. The most noticeable change will be
temperatures in the low 70s as cloud cover keep things cool. Cold
front clears the area as previously mentioned southern stream
shortwave trof moves towards Oklahoma. ECMWF swing this system
northward just west of the region. By this time, better moisture will
be in-place across the region, allowing for warmer temperatures.
The lead shortwave trof helps to curve out a longwave trof over the
western U.S. and this is where the models diverge. The ECMWF would
seemingly point to better severe weather chances than the GFS at this
stage, but even that may be marginal. Given that the potential is D7,
I'm not going to get all that fancy. A decent chance of showers and
thunderstorms exists Friday into Sunday.
I follow persistence on temperatures with a bet of a warm bias given
the ongoing drought conditions. Hopefully next week will provide a
chance for some drought relief.
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