Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 11 – 17, 2010.
Valid: 10/10/2010.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday, mainly
southeast Oklahonma. Slight chance of showers is posted for Sunday.
A cold front is expected late Tuesday but northerly flow behind
current system should limit rain chances.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 70s Monday-Tuesday, low 70s
Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday, low 80s Friday-Sunday.

– NHC is monitoring a system near Nicaragua, which currently has a 50%
chance of developing.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 15%

Discussion:

Rogue cutoff/closed low will continue to move slowly southeast across
Oklahoma later today Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
underway in southwest Oklahoma, with showers common up north. Showers
and thunderstorms will again be possible Monday afternoon with
isolated large hail possible. SPC has posted a slight risk for
southeast Oklahoma on Monday. Once the upper low moves away late
Monday, the sensible weather will go with it. However, a decent cold
front will move through the area late Tuesday and allow for a nice
cool down. Said cool down will be short-lived as the upper ridge
builds back over the region by Thursday.

ECMWF and GFS show a weak southern stream system approaching the
region on Sunday. Low POPs are added given return of low/mid 50s
dewpoints.

Temperatures are based on persistence this week and a nod to the
ongoing drought conditions across much of Oklahoma. OUN hinted at a
major pattern shift in 7-9 days, which the ECMWF shows. The GFS shows
more of the same but also falls into a classic bias of an overly
strong eastern U.S. trof. Hopefully the ECMWF is correct, as rain is
needed.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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