Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 4 – 10, 2010.
Valid: 10/04/2010.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be in the low 70s on Monday, upper 70s Tuesday,
low 80s Wednesday, upper 80s Thursday-Friday, and mid 80s
Saturday-Sunday. Isolated chance of showers is posted for
Saturday-Sunday, although the potential is rather low.

– NHC is watching two systems, one of which has a 40% chance of
development near the Leeward Islands.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 20%

Discussion:

Mid-level ridge will remain in control much of the week, allowing
temperatures to warm to well above seasonable norms. The ridge
rapidly breaks down by Saturday per the ECMWF as a shortwave trof
approaches the region. Low POPs are added for the weekend, although
this will probably bust. GFS is typically too fast and the 00z seems
that way. The 12z ECMWF appears to be a better forecast and I have
weighted this forecast towards it. Temperatures will be much warmer
than last week and in some cases at least 10 degrees above normal.
Given the persistent dry conditions and seasonable dormant vegetation,
the going forecast appears reasonable.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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