Severe Weather Discussion for September 27 – October 3, 2010.
– Temperatures will be in the mid 70s on Monday, upper 70s Tuesday,
80F Wednesday, upper 70s Thursday, and mid 70s Friday-Sunday.
– Little activity in the tropics right now, although the GFS wants to
create a tropical storm near Florida by Saturday. We'll see how that
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 15%
Quiet weather week expected as a western/central U.S. ridge builds
just west of the region. We haven't seen this feature in quite some
time and it will be a strong ridge. With northerly flow expected much
of the week and time of year, all POPs are zero. Two cold fronts are
expected with the first one Thursday morning per the ECMWF. The
GFS/NAM are slower with this surface feature, but for now I'm going
with the ECMWF. As such, I'm somewhat lower with max temps on
Thursday than TV/NWS. A reinforcing shot of cool air is expected on
Sunday. The general idea is a pleasant week ahead with temperatures
generally near normal.
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