Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for September 20 – 26, 2010.
Valid: 09/19/2010.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday-Sunday. Isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday, upper 80s
Tuesday-Saturday, low 80s Sunday.

– Fall begins Wednesday evening.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 30%

Discussion:

Upper ridge remains the dominate force the next few days as the jet
remains displaced northward. By late Tuesday the ridge is somewhat
displaced to the southeast, allowing southwesterly flow to move into
the state. This is part of the western U.S. trof that attempts to
move into the area. The ECMWF first hinted at the development of a
closed low on the 00z run and continued it on the 12z run, when the
GFS joined in on the fun. The sudden development of a western U.S.
ridge and higher heights to the east, would seemingly support this
solution.

Moisture will continue to be in-place across the region and this
should allow precip chances to increase by mid-week and especially by
next weekend. Precip chances are introduced starting Thursday and
kept through Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF do agree on a closed low but
disagree on the location of said closed low. As such, I went a little
lower on temperatures to split the difference. Even though the ECMWF
is to the west, I don't see a significant temperature increase as the
surface ridge is pushing southward as the surface low weakens.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late week given stronger
flow aloft, warmth, and moisture. Don't expect anything significant
at this point.

Tropics continue to be seasonably active and maybe a little more so.
Igor and Julia should be gone soon but another area is developing west
of Cape Verde island. Should be interesting to see how far west this
one gets as the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic has been a
little weak this year while the southeast ridge has been very strong.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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