Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for September 13-19, 2010.
Valid: 09/13/2010.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s all week.

– Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, the severe
threat is expected to be limited.

– Category 4 Hurricane Igor continues in the open Atlantic, current
projections take it northwest, very near Bermuda. Tropical Storm
Julia is ongoing just off the African coast and another area of
disturbed weather is in the southern Caribbean.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 30%

Discussion:

Norman NWS put forth the best forecast when they described the pattern
as quasi-zonal this week and it certainly fits. A weak short-wave
trof will traverse the northern U.S. on Wed/Thu allowing for a cold
front to move into Oklahoma. This boundary will stall in Oklahoma and
dissipate. Warm and moist air will continue to be present this week
with afternoon thunderstorms likely owing to a weak ridging aloft.
Lack of stronger flow aloft and low lapse rates should keep severe
thunderstorm coverage limited in space and time. Little change in
temperatures are expected this week, even tough the daytime high is
85F and night time lows are around 64F.

The tropics continue to be seasonably active with Cat 4 Hurricane Igor
terrorizing the fish in the open Atlantic. This cyclone is expected
to recurve short of the U.S. but Bermuda might get lucky (not in a
good way). Julia is not expected to be a threat. Another area of
disturbed weather is present in the southern Caribbean and this will
be monitored. For now the probabilities are kept lower since the U.S.
isn't currently threatened.

I didn't get fancy with temperatures this week.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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