Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 30 – September 4, 2010.
Valid: 08/30/2010.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Thursday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday – Wednesday, low 90s
Thursday, upper 80s Friday-Saturday, low 90s Sunday.

– Tropics are pretty active with three ongoing systems. There are no
imminent threats to the US, but Earl will have to be watched.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 50%

Discussion:

Models in decent agreement with taking a western U.S. trof and
deflecting it northward as a strong ridge builds in the eastern U.S.
This is a similar pattern to what we saw in May and June this year.
As such, the threat for severe weather will be low as stronger flow
aloft is displaced north of the region. This system will bring a cold
front into the state and this may help set off some storms mid-week.
POPs are added for this time period, with severe weather potential
low. Upper system moves by and weak ridging aloft sets in for the
weekend. Models don't show anything significant at seven days, so the
drought looks to continue.

Tropics are very active and seasonably so. Earl may pass close enough
to the U.S. to cause a problem and as such probabilities are raised
for it. I thought that Fiona might come a little farther west, but
NHC has it turning northward pretty quick.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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