Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 23-29, 2010.
Valid: 08/23/2010.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible late Monday through early Wednesday
across the state. Most likely time is Tuesday afternoon/evening. A
cold front will push through Oklahoma on Tuesday, ushering in much
cooler air.

– Temperatures will be in the 100-102F range on Monday, mid 80s
Tuesday-Wednesday, upper 80s Thursday-Friday, low 90s Saturday-Sunday.

– Tropics are getting active with Danielle a hurricane and another
tropical wave being watched just off the African coast.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 30%

Discussion:

An end to the heat is finally here! Today is the last day of 100F
heat for a while, if not until next summer. Although a day or so of
hot temperatures is always possible, the weeks of hot weather appear
at an end.

The long awaited cold front, being driven by a northern stream
short-wave trof, is located over northwest KS to southeast CO. This
boundary will move through Oklahoma on Tuesday, bring much cooler air
with it. In many cases, temperatures on Tuesday will be 15-20F lower
than today. Wednesday morning is likely to feel down right chilly as
overnight lows end up in the low 60s.

Little activity is likely after this system passes as a mid-level
ridge remains near the area. Temperatures will slowly warm through
the weekend to the low 90s. Models indicate a western U.S. shortwave
trof developing in split-flow and shifting eastward next week.
Moisture return is expected ahead of this system during the weekend
into next week. Tough call on what can be expected weather wise as
this system approaches but time of year would favor severe weather.

Didn't get to fancy with temperatures.

As noted above, the tropics have gotten busy. Nothing near the U.S.,
so I'm keeping the probabilities a little low even with one hurricane
and another prospect. Danielle is likely to recurve with no impacts,
not sure on the next prospect.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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