Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 9-15, 2010.
Valid: 08/09/2010.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday into Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the 100-102F range Monday-Saturday, and mid
90s Sunday.

– Collin is no longer a tropical system. NHC is watching two areas
for development.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 15%

Discussion:

Continued hot much of the week as the mid-level 594dm ridge dominates
the region. Luckily the ridge will be somewhat offset to the east,
keeping temperatures in the 101-102F range. Models agree that a
northern stream shortwave trof will move across the U.S. on
Saturday/Sunday. This should push a cool front through Oklahoma.
Temperatures will cool with the passage of the front and the ridge
located in the eastern U.S. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
along the front late Saturday through Sunday.

NHC continues to monitor a tropical wave located over the central
Atlantic. They give it a 70% chance of development. Currently there
is nothing threatening the U.S.

Didn't do too much with temperatures this week as persistence seems
like the best forecast for early August.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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