Tropical Depression 3 – 1

Tropical Depression 3
Valid: 2010-07-22

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression 3.

At 10:00am CDT:

– The center of TD 3 was located 265 miles southeast of Nassau.
Movement is towards the west-northwest at 15mph, maximum sustained
winds are near 35mph, and minimum surface pressure is 1008mb.

– Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Central and Northwest
Bahamas.

– Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from north of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

Discussion:

Very early in the track of TD 3 to attempt forecasting the future
track of the system. It is currently a shallow system and will
respond to the lower level winds for the time being. As TD 3
strengthen, and it is expected to become a tropical storm (Bonnie), it
will become a deep layer system. This will assist in track forecasts.

Current thinking from the NHC takes TD 3 west-northwest towards the
TX/LA coast by late Sunday. This appears in best agreement with the
global models that all have a subtropical ridge over the southeast
U.S. It does appear that we will have a tropical storm in the Gulf
despite the ultimate landfall point. The system is currently being
sheared by a strong low to the west of it and this may limit
significant intensification before landfall on Sunday. NHC forecasts
TD 3 to be a moderately strong tropical storm at landfall.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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