Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for July 12 – 18, 2010.
Valid: 07/12/2010.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across much of Oklahoma.
Primary threat is hail to golfball size and winds to 70mph.

– Temperatures will be near 90F today, low 90s Tuesday-Thursday, mid
90s Friday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 10%

Discussion:

Unusual July weather continues for a day or so, when we transition to
more typical July conditions. SPC has a slight risk posted for today,
covering much of Oklahoma. Shortwave trof moving through the central
U.S. and a cold front in the state should provide favorable conditions
for severe thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall will also be a threat
due to high PW values.

The weather appears to settle down some on Tuesday as the shortwave
trof translates east and the front dissipates. Models show a 594dm
ridge building to our west and this should dry things out some. I'm
not going mid-90s until late in the week as really moist ground should
keep us a little cooler than what we would expect this time of year.
I'm really iffy on the mid 90s for the weekend, but a 94F would get us
in that range so for now it looks fine.

The hottest time of year for Oklahoma City starts on Saturday, with a
normal of 94F. That may justify the upper 90s in the forecast for
Sunday, but I'm not biting.

I went below MOS and other forecasters for the week.

Nothing brewing in the tropics right now, but time of year argues for
a little higher probability.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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