Severe Weather Discussion for July 12 – 18, 2010.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across much of Oklahoma.
Primary threat is hail to golfball size and winds to 70mph.
– Temperatures will be near 90F today, low 90s Tuesday-Thursday, mid
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 10%
Unusual July weather continues for a day or so, when we transition to
more typical July conditions. SPC has a slight risk posted for today,
covering much of Oklahoma. Shortwave trof moving through the central
U.S. and a cold front in the state should provide favorable conditions
for severe thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall will also be a threat
due to high PW values.
The weather appears to settle down some on Tuesday as the shortwave
trof translates east and the front dissipates. Models show a 594dm
ridge building to our west and this should dry things out some. I'm
not going mid-90s until late in the week as really moist ground should
keep us a little cooler than what we would expect this time of year.
I'm really iffy on the mid 90s for the weekend, but a 94F would get us
in that range so for now it looks fine.
The hottest time of year for Oklahoma City starts on Saturday, with a
normal of 94F. That may justify the upper 90s in the forecast for
Sunday, but I'm not biting.
I went below MOS and other forecasters for the week.
Nothing brewing in the tropics right now, but time of year argues for
a little higher probability.
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