Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for July 5 – 11, 2010.
Valid: 07/04/2010.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are possible all week. While it certainly
won't rain the entire week, there will be hit/miss activity. The best
chance is Monday-Wednesday, with lower POPs Thursday-Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s Monday-Wednesday, near 90F
Thursday-Friday, low 90s Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development 30%

Discussion:

Sensible weather this week will once again be based on subtle features
as the synoptic scale features are displaced to the north. Upper
ridge is current east of the region and is progged to migrate west by
Wed/Thu. As such, POPs remain in the forecast through Wednesday as
moisture from Alex and subtle lift result in showers and
thunderstorms. POPs are somewhat lower going into Thursday/Friday as
the ridge starts to shift back west. A low chance of rain will exist
next weekend, but most likely drier than this weekend. Temperatures
should get closer to normal, but maybe a struggle as the models show
only a 588dm ridge and recent rainfall will keep moisture values high.

NHC is watching several areas for tropical development and certainly
may see some more activity this week.

Nothing special temperature wise, went below normal through Friday
with near-normal next weekend.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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