Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 28th – July 4th, 2010.
Valid: 06/27/2010.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are likely on Monday, severe potential is low but
can't rule out a few.

– Showers and some thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Monday, low 90s
Tuesday-Thursday, near 90F Friday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 10%

Discussion:

Much cooler temperatures this week as the persistent ridge shifts east
and a cool front move through the state. Additionally, by the
weekend, the remnants of Alex may move over the state. POPs are added
for Monday as the cool front moves through the state and again for the
weekend as Alex may influence parts o the state. The weekend is
really a guess, but have to put it in there. Even though Alex is
around, I went 10% given that it will persist a few more days.
Impacts to the U.S. should be limited to none. The GFS is somewhat of
an outlier with the placement of Alex in the lower Texas coast and
subsequently moving it over the state. However, the POPs for this
weekend are kind of wishful thinking and I'll stick with them.
Temperatures don't look to be all that extreme with or without Alex as
the 594dm ridge is gone for now.

Didn't get too fancy with temperatures. Despite having a ridge all
week, we've struggle to get much above 95F in OKC. Still above
normal, but not extreme by any measure.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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