Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 14 – June 20, 2010.
Valid: 06/13/2010.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday across much of
Oklahoma. Primary threats are large hail and damaging winds, but an
isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Also, a flash flood threat may
develop across the state.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Monday, low 80s Tuesday,
upper 80s Wednesday, low 90s Thursday – Friday, mid 90s Saturday –
Sunday.

– Tropics are showing some signs of life and a tropical depression may
form this week. Discussions will be issued if necessary.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 30%
– Storm Chase: 20%
– Tropical Development: 30%

Discussion:

Ongoing severe weather in Oklahoma will continue on Monday and Tuesday
as pesky closed low in the SW U.S. finally ejects eastward. Outflow
boundary in Oklahoma will be reinforced by convection tonight and
early Monday. This boundary should be in in west-central and
north-central Oklahoma by Monday afternoon. Wind fields increase
across the state with CAPE values around 2000 J/Kg. Storms are likely
long the frontal boundary Monday afternoon as surface temperatures
warm across the state. Minimal cap (EML) and moderate instability
will yield favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. Tornadoes
are not likely but given the activity in the panhandle today, can't
rule it out. SPC will probably focus the tornado threat in
west-central Oklahoma near the triple point. The dryline may be the
better tornado producer but even today it was mainly the stalled
front. Excessive rainfall threat develops Monday evening and
continues into Tuesday as the front slowly moves south across the
state and the upper system ejects east.

Upper systems leaves the region on Wednesday and heights rise across
the state. Frontal boundary should wash out and conditions across
Oklahoma dry out. As such, no POPs beyond Tuesday. Temperatures will
warm, but not going beyond low 90s given heights around 588dm.
Temperatures may start to warm late in the week, but wet soil may keep
that from happening.

NHC is closing watching a tropic wave off the African coast. They're
giving it a high chance for development and the models do show a
tropical storm within 48 hours. Additionally, presence of a strong
ridge in the Atlantic should keep the storm south, approaching the
Lesser Antilles by Friday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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