Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 7 – 13, 2010.
Valid: 06/06/2010.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon in southeast Oklahoma.
Wednesday/Thursday, thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern
half of Oklahoma.

– Severe thunderstorms are possible in western Oklahoma on Saturday
and again across much of the state on Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday, upper 90s Tuesday, low
90s Wednesday, mid 90s Thursday-Friday, upper 90s Saturday, mid 90s
Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: 20%
– Tropical Development: < 5%

Discussion:

12z models are in decent agreement regarding the expected weather this
week. The upper ridge over the region will be undercut by a small low
across Texas, similar to what happened last week. This low will
eventually move through northeast Texas on Wednesday and will bring
rain chances to southeast Oklahoma.

By Friday a western U.S. longwave trof develops with strong 500mb flow
across the north-central U.S. Upper system progged by ECMWF/GFS to
close off over Nevada/Utah by Saturday with stronger mid-level flow
west of the region. A 500mb northern stream shortwave trof moves
across ND/SD and push a surface high towards the region. By Sunday
the cold front may be in Oklahoma with the upper system translating
slowly east into the region. Evolution of this system is tough to
determine this far out and the general trend points to thunderstorms
across the state next weekend. I went ahead and bumped up severe
chances for next weekend and we'll see what develops. This time of a
year a slight risk in Oklahoma will get chase interest, so I bumped up
the chase potential also. The dryline appears to remain in NM, which
is climatology this time of year. The incoming cold front would seem
to serve as a decent boundary for severe thunderstorms if stronger
flow aloft can overspread it before the front moves into southeast
Oklahoma.

Model temperatures aren't too bad and I generally went with them
through the next seven days. Appears that the heat is here to stay
unless we get lucky enough to be on the north side of a cold front or
near a rogue low.

Nothing noted in the tropics and don't expect much this week.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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