Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for May 31 – June 6, 2010.
Valid: 05/31/2010.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are possible Monday, Wednesday-Thursday, and Sunday.
Severe thunderstorms are possible later today in northwest Oklahoma,
late Wednesday and again Sunday.

– Hurricane season starts tomorrow, many forecasts point to an active season.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s Monday, low 90s Tuesday –
Wednesday, mid 80s Thursday, mid 90s Thursday, upper 90s Saturday –
Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: < 5%

Discussion:

Models in decent agreement regarding the forecast this week. In
general, zonal flow, will dominate the pattern other than a weakness
moving through Texas on Wednesday. As with today, thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the state. Low-end severe thunderstorms
appear possible and SPC has a weather watch up for the Oklahoma
panhandle this afternoon. Thursday – Saturday should be dry with
warming temperatures as heights rise. Models show a 594dm ridge to
our west by Sunday with potentially northwest flow setting up across
Oklahoma with stronger 500mb flow across the state. If this happens,
then there may be a chance for thunderstorms.

GFS really warms us up by the weekend and it has some support from the
ECMWF. I'm hesitant to go above 100F with 70F dewpoints and the ridge
not overhead. However, doesn't mean it can't happen and if the ECMWF
verifies next Sunday, we may well get above 100F. For now, western
Oklahoma stands the best chance for getting above 100F this week. The
normal high this week is @84F, so 100F would be at least 16F above
normal.

Stuck with persistence temperature wise except for Thursday where
expected decaying MCS should keep us a little cooler. I went a little
below the GFS on Sunday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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