Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for May 24 – 30, 2010.
Valid: 05/23/2010.

Highlights:

– Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday – Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected but can't rule out one or two.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s all week.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: 10%
– Tropical Development: 5%

Discussion:

A 500mb longwave ridge will dominate the forecast through next Sunday,
although rain/storm chances will not be zero. Blocking pattern in the
mid-levels will give rise to this ridge with a longwave trof just west
of the region. Models are consistent with maintaining enough strength
in the upper ridge to deflect much of the energy northward. A
boundary is expected in the state Monday-Wednesday and this will
provide a focus for thunderstorms. Due to weak and disorganized flow
aloft, don't expect any severe thunderstorms through next weekend.
Models do hint that the upper ridge will weaken by late next weekend,
early the following week. As such, there may be potential for
stronger flow aloft to develop over Oklahoma. ECMWF is a little
weaker with the upper ridge next Sunday, but for now I have opted to
keep the forecast dry.

Lack of significant airmass changes and presence of upper ridge seems
to imply that temperatures will remain steady in the upper 80s this
week. GFS wants to go much higher next Sunday, but I'll stick with
the going forecast.

Models want to develop a weak tropical system off the east coast.
While SST's are still cool, the potential isn't necessarily zero. NHC
isn't really watching it, but I'll include a token POP since hurricane
season is near.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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