Severe Weather Discussion for May 10 – 16, 2010.
– Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday – Wednesday with particular
emphasis on Monday and Wednesday.
– Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday – Sunday.
– Temperatures will be in the low 80s Monday, upper 80s Tuesday, low
80s Wednesday, low 70s Thursday-Friday, and upper 70s Saturday-Sunday.
– Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 75%
– Storm Chase: > 75%
Primary forecast attention is on Monday and Wednesday with medium-end
events expected both days. There is potential for an isolated
high-end event, but details are difficult to determine as mesoscale
features will play a big role. General pattern for the first few days
of the forecast period will be a longwave trof to the west and two
primary shortwave trofs ejecting northeast. Late in the week the
ECMWF shows a weak shortwave trof moving eastward, but impacts should
be on the low side, mainly thunderstorms.
Regarding the severe probability, since a high-end event remains in
question, I left it at 75%.
I did very little to forecast temperatures this week.
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