Severe Weather Discussion 2010-5-3

Severe Weather Discussion for April 29, 2010.
Valid: 04/28/2010.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday in northwest
Oklahoma. Probability is low, but if storms develop they'll produce
damaging hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Oklahoma on Friday.

Discussion:

Upcoming event has dropped below my medium-end threshold for
discussions, but I'll issue this one to cover the next few days. 00z
NAM is consistent with prior runs and the GFS regarding the evolution
tomorrow. Prior Gulf intrusion was quite substantial and even with
strong south winds, only 50F dewpoints have returned to the state.
However, by Thursday morning upper 50s/low 60s should start to return
and should be in Kansas by late Thursday. 850mb moisture, also
limited tonight, should increase on Thursday. Surface moisture may
mix out a little more tomorrow than models indicate. NAM continues
have CAPE values AOB 1500 J/Kg and this appears to be represented by
warm 500mb temperatures and marginal moisture values. If stronger
forcing was expected tomorrow, I'd be more excited about storm
chances. However, with the primary closed low translating into North
Dakota and trofing hanging back west, there will be little opportunity
for lift despite impressive wind fields aloft. Models also rapidly
increase CIN shortly after sunset. All of these factors will
seemingly prevent thunderstorms on Thursday. This is in best
agreement with SPC/OUN/NAM/GFS/HRRR.

A better chance of severe thunderstorms appears for Thursday across
the eastern 1/4 of Oklahoma. 00z NAM has the front near Tulsa Friday
afternoon with CAPE values around 1500 J/Kg. Additionally, it
develops a decent amount of QPF. Given that a shortwave trof will be
moving into the region with strong forcing across the frontal boundary
and mid-level temperatures cooling, the cap should be eroded. Wind
fields will remain quite impressive and will favor severe
thunderstorms, if they can indeed develop.

Moisture gets pushed south of the area so the severe weather threat
should decrease. However, lift over the front in Texas may cause
elevated showers and thunderstorms across the state Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

None

Chase Readiness:

Level 1 – Normal

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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