Severe Weather Discussion 2010-4-4

Severe Weather Discussion for April 22, 2010.
Valid: 04/22/2010.

Highlights:

– Active severe weather day is likely across much of Oklahoma. The
threat during the afternoon and evening hours will be in far western
Oklahoma where a supercell or two may enter the state from the Texas
Panhandle. These storms will have a tornado and damaging hail threat.
Later in the evening a severe squall line is expected to develop and
move across the state through Friday morning. Widespread damaging
winds are possible with this line of storms.

– In wake of the convection tonight and Friday morning, the threat
Friday afternoon appears to be limited. However, this will be
monitored.

– Chase Readiness is increased to Level 4 and we are leaving at
12:30pm heading for Wellington, Texas.

Discussion:

No change to prior forecast or reasoning. Isolated showers have moved
into western Oklahoma along with copious amounts of cloud cover. This
is reducing surface heating in areas of west-central and northwest
Oklahoma this morning but elsewhere in the state clouds are limited.
As the upper system located in the southwest U.S. shifts northeast
later today and overnight the Texas panhandle dryline will surge east
into the main part of Oklahoma. Moisture continues to increase with
dewpoints in the 60-65F range expected later today. Models develop
isolated supercells in the Texas panhandle and shift them east towards
western Oklahoma during the early evening hours. This activity should
dissipate with sunset and as it moves into cooler air over
west-central/NW OK. Latter as the upper system drives a Pacific cold
front into the dryline, both of them will move across the state during
the overnight hours into early Friday. This should produce a large
severe squall line, capable of damaging winds. The Storm Prediction
Center is considering a moderate risk to account for this potential.
An update will be issued later if necessary.

Probabilities:

None, although there will likely be a slight risk on Friday it is
expected to be in far eastern Oklahoma.

Chase Readiness:

Level 4

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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