Severe Weather Discussion 2010-4-3

Severe Weather Discussion for April 22-23, 2010.
Valid: 04/21/2010.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across the Texas/OK
Panhandles and western Oklahoma. Primary threats are tornadoes and
damaging hail.

– Severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday across central/eastern
Oklahoma. Primary threats are tornadoes, damaging hail and wind.

Discussion:

No changes to prior thinking regarding the evolution of weather
conditions on Thursday. Primary thing to watch will be morning
convection and resultant impacts on the atmosphere. Models continue
to develop QPF across the region early Thursday morning and shift it
east. There appears to be some decent recovery after this, should is
actually occur. The development, location, and intensity of any
convection tomorrow will be a major player in situational awareness
for storms and/or chasing.

Friday remains as stated the past few days, although the GFS appears
very unrealistic with a cold front in Arkansas 7pm Friday. The NAM's
location near I-35 remains the preferred solution and appears the
majority of people are staying with it. Convection appears to leave
Oklahoma early Friday and may set the stage for robust convection
Friday night. As with tomorrow, the development, intensity, and
location of convection will be important.

Both days have many ingredients for significant severe weather but how
they come together will be the ultimate deciding factor for what
happens.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 04/22 Day 1, Day 2):

Slight: 100%, 100%
Moderate: 50%, 25%
High: 0%, 0%

Chase Readiness:

– Level 3 – Looking to chase in the Texas panhandle on Thursday,
current target is Wellington.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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