Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion April 5 – 11, 2010.
Valid: 04/04/2010.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across central/eastern
Oklahoma. Excessive rainfall is possible in the state, primarily in
eastern sections Tuesday night.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 80s Monday, upper 70s Tuesday, upper
60s Wednesday, low 70s Thursday-Friday, mid 70s Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 30%
– Storm Chase: 20%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Primary feature of interest this week is the medium-wavelength trof
moving into the California coast and into Oklahoma on Tuesday. Ahead
of this feature, temperatures will warmm on Monday and a dryline will
nudge into western Oklahoma. A fire weather watch is posted for far
northwest sections on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on
Tuesday as the upper system moves into the state. Special discussions
are being issued regarding this potential. The upper system will
bring a marginal Canadian ridge with it and cool us down a little on
Wednesday while also pushing moisture to the Gulf coast. A such, all
POPs zero beyond Tuesday. The rest of the week will be quite
pleasant, especially the weekend.

Next chance of storms appears around the 12/13th as another system
enters the western U.S. GFS is quite intense with the system, forming
a closed low and ejecting it northeast across CO/OK panhandle. ECMWF
is less intense and more progressive with the upper system. Moisture
return looks to be marginal but somewhat seasonable for mid-April. As
such, will have to monitor this time period for severe weather
potential.

Followed the models on temperatures this week, not really that
difficult. I did go my own direction a few of the later periods.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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