Timing: Thursday and Friday.
– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in far western Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Primary threat is large hail with maybe a tornado or two. However, the threat is very conditional and the more likely outcome will be storms developing late Thursday night into Friday morning along the dryline.
– Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, are likely Friday across Oklahoma. Friday is somewhat complex due to model differences and timing of the upper system. Current thinking is a squall line will move across Oklahoma Friday morning into the afternoon. Primary threats are large hail and damaging winds. Later in the day, assuming surface heating can occur, another threat for more discrete activity may occur in southern Oklahoma southward into Texas.
Models haven’t changed much over the past few runs with the GFS still the quickest of the bunch. I prefer the NAM/ECMWF solutions, which are just a tad slower than the GFS. Thursday appears to be hot and dry across the threat area but there is still some potential. If a storm develops it will likely become severe, if only for a brief time. Better chance of activity will be in Kansas. SPC has a slight risk up for this area, but said risk area for late Thursday night into Friday as the cap cools and a squall line develops.
The squall line should race across Oklahoma on Friday with potentially some clearing in southern Oklahoma southward into Texas. If this can occur, another area of convection is likely as the upper system ejects into western/central Texas Friday afternoon. Tough call if discrete storms can develop, but it is certainly possible. In Oklahoma, winds will be somewhat unidirectional and much of the state is expected to have rain cooled air.
Considering a chase tomorrow and maybe Friday.by