Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for March 22 – 28, 2010.
Valid: 03/21/2010.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across much of
Oklahoma. Snow is possible in the panhandle with amounts expected to
be low.

– Rain is possible on Saturday.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 50s on Monday, upper 60s Tuesday,
mid 60s Wednesday, upper 50s Thursday, low 60s Friday, low 70s
Saturday, mid 60s Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

Busy few days as power house upper system moved across Texas this
weekend resulting in widespread snow across Oklahoma. This system
will slowly move east the next few days, leaving an impressive dry air
intrusion into the Gulf. The next southern stream shortwave trof
will approach the region on Wednesday. This feature will grab some
Gulf moisture with upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints possible Wednesday
afternoon. A cold front will be moving across the state at this time
period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Severe thunderstorm
potential is low given lack of moisture and surface temperatures in
the upper 60s.

Model progs indicate a decent chance for snow in the panhandle.
Amounts shouldn't get out of hand, but an advisory is certainly
possible. I've gone with some POPs for snow to account for this
potential.

Upper system moves east and weakens, resulting in only moderate dry
air intrusion into the Gulf. Another upper system moves into the
region on Saturday, but is much weaker than the prior system.
Moisture return will likely occur, but the overall weather should be
rain. Upper system will pass with minimal cold air.

Model progs seemed okay for temperatures this week, so didn't get away
too much.

12z GFS and ECMWF hint at a more significant trof around April 1st.
Moisture appears to be available as this system moves into the region
and we could see our first organized severe weather threat.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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