Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for March 8 – 14, 2010.
Valid: 03/07/2010.

Highlights:

– Widespread thunderstorms are likely on Monday. An isolated severe
thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out.

– Showers are possible Tuesday – Thursday, but will likely remain isolated.

– Temperatures will be in the low 60s Monday, upper 60s Tuesday, low
60s Wednesday, upper 50s Thursday – Sunday.

– Time change occurs Sunday March 14, 2010, at 2:00am. Move clocks
forward one hour or risk being late for church!

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Long advertised southern stream closed low will move into the region
on Monday. Said system will then wrap up into a large closed low
between the split flow of the northern/southern jet streams.
Additional southern stream energy will translate eastward into the
region and cause a large closed low to develop. This system will move
eastward through the end of the forecast period.

All models agree on the eastward progression of the southwest U.S.
closed low. It appears this system and associated lift will move into
Oklahoma around noon. Given the amount of cloud cover and lack of
better moisture, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. The likely
impacts will be thunderstorms developing late Monday morning and
shifting eastward during the day. Models agree that the dryline,
marked by 50-55F dewpoints in southwest Oklahoma, will remain near the
border at peak heating. As such, some additional development is
possible during the late afternoon hours. Storms that develop in this
area will have the best chance of being discrete, with low-topped
supercells possible. The threat appears to be rather low and I do
side with SPC on their outlook.

Beyond Monday, there seems to be little in the way of an organized
thunderstorm threat for Oklahoma. SPC Day 4-8 hints at some potential
for east Texas around Wednesday, but don't see Oklahoma getting in on
this action. Models diverge significantly just beyond the forecast
period. GFS wants to advertise nearly zonal flow across the lower 48,
a rather significant departure from prior runs. Given that the Gulf
is going to get trashed with the large eastern U.S. closed low,
anything that does approach early next week will likely have limited
moisture.

Model numbers look good through Wednesday. GFS looks way too low with
upper 40s Thu/Fri, so went above MEX guidance. I did follow NWS OUN
closely on temps in general.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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