Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for February 8 – 14, 2010.
Valid: 02/07/2010.

Highlights:

– Snow is likely across the northwest 1/3rd of Oklahoma on Monday,
with 4-6 inches expected. Just south of this location 1-3 inches is
likely.

– Slight chance of rain and/or snow on Thursday, across mainly the
southern 1/2 of Oklahoma.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 30s on Monday, low 30 Tuesday,
upper 30s Wednesday – Thursday, near 40F Friday, upper 40s Saturday,
near 50F Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 25%

Discussion:

12z/18z models are in decent agreement for the forecast this week.
Three southern stream systems will impact the region as split flow
continues across the western U.S. Impacts are likely from the first
system, while the other two should be too far south in Texas to impact
us. First system is progged to move into the region late tonight into
Monday. This system will spread snow across much of northwest
Oklahoma with rain changing to snow late Monday across the I-44
corridor. Overall, amounts won't be too significant with 4-6 inches
expected. A few isolated areas up to 8 inches will be possible.

Next system approaches on Thursday but looks to travel through central
Texas. This should limit impacts on Oklahoma with a slight chance of
rain/snow. The third system looks to also go through Texas but maybe
close enough to impact Oklahoma. However, moisture is expected to be
limited with this system, so POPs are kept low.

I went a little above MOS much of the forecast week. I did find
myself inline with the GFS next weekend. I think we'll be closer to
average than current forecasts. While the state will get periodic
cold fronts, none of them have an Arctic bite. The one tomorrow is
expected to be the coldest of the bunch.

NCEP notes a mature and strong El Nino is in-progress. I guess that
explains the odd winter across Oklahoma. Models note at the El Nino
should weaken during the spring months. I'm interested to learn what
impacts this will have on storm season.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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