Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for February 1 – 7, 2010.
Valid: 01/31/2010.

Highlights:

– Freezing drizzle is possible Monday morning along with freezing fog.
Rain is likely in southern Oklahoma Wednesday – Friday with a chance
of snow across northern sections.

– Temperatures will be in in near 40F Monday, mid 40s Tuesday, upper
40s Wednesday-Thursday, low 40s Friday, upper 40s Saturday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 20%

Discussion:

Another wild week across Oklahoma with widespread snow and ice. This
week looks to be much more quiet but there may be some weather
impacts. Models have not handled the temperature profile well the
past few days, so I've undercut things a little early in the week.

Two features of interest this week with little in the way of impacts
for the state of a whole. The first system will be a weak northern
stream shortwave trof, progged to move north of the region on Monday.
This will induce WAA and potentially some freezing drizzle. At this
juncture the freezing drizzle is not expected to cause significant
problems. However, with infrastructure below 0C, it won't take much
to cause problem. Travel will likely be impacted although the threat
is transient. Temperatures should warm above freezing Monday morning,
ending the freezing drizzle threat.

A southern stream medium wavelength trof moves towards the region on
Wednesday and induces WAA across Texas and Oklahoma. Models are
robust with precipitation in Texas and some in Oklahoma. As such,
have gone with decent POPs for Wednesday-Friday, although the most
likely time is late Wednesday into Thursday. There is a chance of
snow as the cold core moves across the region on Friday. I'm going
with OUN on northern Oklahoma and not really doing much forecasting of
my own at this point. I have put 20% in the winter precip area for
the freezing drizzle tomorrow morning and possible snow towards the
end of the week. Other than these two seemingly minor events, no
other impacts are expected.

Next weekend looks pleasant with near normal temperatures and plenty
of sunshine. Another southern stream trof looks to be loitering off
the California coast late next weekend and will likely influence the
region towards the beginning of the following week.

I followed model MOS a little, but not much. They did horrible
yesterday and today, so I'm iffy on them right now.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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