Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 11 – 17, 2010.
Valid: 01/10/2010.

Highlights:

– Rain is possible Thursday into Saturday, primarily for central and
southern Oklahoma. Snow is possible late Friday into Saturday with
accumulations on the low end.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 40s Monday, mid 40s Tuesday, mid
50s Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday, low 40s Friday-Saturday, 50F Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

Almost three weeks of below normal temperatures appear about over as
highs this week should be very close to seasonal averages. Current
normal high for OKC is 46F, the yearly temperature min. Over all,
looks like a pleasant early winter week.

Upper ridge will dominate the state through Wednesday as a weak
southern stream shortwave trof moves through south Texas. System is
very far south and progged to weaken, as such impacts on Oklahoma
should be low. A cold front will likely move through the state as a
northern stream shortwave trof passes to the east. The cold air with
this system will be limited and only drop highs back a little.
Wednesday should see a warmup as the upper ridge dominates and surface
flow is southerly with flow right off the surface southwest. NAM
BUFKIT data shows low 50s, but 850mb temps support mid 50s like OUN is
forecasting.

On Thursday another southern stream trof will move into Mexico and
eventually south Texas. GFS/ECMWF are similar with this system as it
will be much stronger than the mid-week system. Widespread rainfall
is expected across Texas and some of this should make it into
Oklahoma. By Friday a weak northern stream system will move through
MN/Wisconsin and drag some cooler Canadian air into the region. This
maybe enough for a change-over to snow in parts of Oklahoma.
Currently, impacts are on the low-end with maybe a few inches possible
Friday into early Saturday. Upper system ejects northeast into TN/KY
on Sunday with dry and mild conditions for Oklahoma.

Went above NAM/GFS MOS much of the week, especially Wednesday and
Sunday. Stayed a little below on Tuesday due to weak cold front.
Should see a decent amount of sun Mon-Wed, which will hopefully melt
most of the OKC glacier.

—————————————————————-
This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *