Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 4 – 10, 2010.
Valid: 01/03/2010.

Highlights:

– Snow is possible Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.
Accumulations are expected to be on the low side, less than three
inches.

– Brutally cold temperatures are likely by mid week.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 20s Monday, mid 30s Tuesday, low
30s Wednesday, upper teens Thursday – Friday, upper 20s Saturday, low
30s Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

Models agree that an eastern U.S. longwave trof will continue this
week as a western U.S. ridge amplifies. A shortwave trof will round
the top of said ridge on Tuesday and dive southward into the central
U.S. on Wednesday. This will dislodge a pretty big junk of Arctic
air. Models represent this by a 1053mb high plunging southward from
central Canada. To say this airmass is cold, is an understatement.
Models typically do not give these things enough respect and so I've
hedged temperatures downward on Wednesday as FROPA may occur a little
earlier in the day. Additionally, I've gone with NWS OUN on temps
this weekend, actually a little below them on Saturday. I do not
agree with the models on warming us up into the low 50s on Sunday.
Arctic intrusions rarely leave as fast as the models forecast them too.

Shortwave trof bringing in the Arctic air will give parts of Oklahoma
a chance at snowfall. Not much is expected due to limited moisture
and path of the upper system. However, if the system digs more
westward than currently forecast, as with last Thursday's system, more
snow would be likely. Little in the way of precipitation after this
system passes early Thursday. It will be interesting to see how close
OKC comes to 0F Friday morning.

I followed NAM/GFS BUFKIT data Monday – Saturday, see little reason to
disagree other than a degree here/there. I stayed away from the GFS's
50F on Sunday, so I'll take the hit if it happens.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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