Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for December 28, 2009 – January 3, 2010.
Valid: 12/27/2009.

– Snow is likely Tuesday evening into Wednesday, may impacts will be
common 1-2 inches with isolated totals near 3 inches.

– Snow is possible Thursday, with limited impacts expected.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 30s Monday-Tuesday, low 30s
Wednesday, mid 30s Thursday, low 30s Friday, low 40s Saturday-Sunday.

– Happy New Year!

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 20%

Discussion:

Area still covered with snowfall from historic event last week and
this will impact temperatures during this week. Two weak upper
systems are progged to move through the state with snowfall expected.
Impacts from each event are expected to limited.

Weakening southern stream shortwave trof will move into the state late
Tuesday and leave early Wednesday morning. System will have moisture
to work with but not particularly strong. As such, only 2-3 inches of
snowfall are expected across the state. Another system moves into
Oklahoma on Thursday, a clipper style from the northwest. Limited
moisture and quick movement will keep snowfall totals on the low side.
Went with low-end probabilities for the upcoming week given only 2-4
inches of snow.

Followed NAM MOS through Tuesday and one of the GFS ensembles through
the end of the week. In general stayed on the cooler side of MOS. I
agree that the Arctic cold front will likely go east as the 500mb flow
doesn't favor too much penetration into Oklahoma.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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