Severe Weather Discussion for December 14 – 20, 2009.
– Slight chance of rain or snow Friday night across central/eastern Oklahoma.
– Temperatures will fall during the day Monday (duh), upper 30s
Tuesday, upper 40s Wednesday, low 50s Thursday – Friday, upper 30s
Saturday, low 40s Sunday.
– Winter starts Sunday at 23:45 CST, like you needed me to tell you that one.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 5%
Somewhat quiet week ahead as a longwave 500mb trof ends up dominating
the eastern U.S. by the weekend. The general 500mb flow will keep
things dry in Oklahoma. Since the prevailing flow has deamplified,
the cold air dumps should taper off after today. However, as the big
trof takes shape this weekend, another cold front is expected,
dropping temperatures back below normal.
Models MOS wasn't very good and pretty much stayed away from the GFS
except from Wed/Thu. I did weight the forecast towards the NAM on
Tuesday but not going as high as MET MOS on Wednesday. Cooled
temperatures below the GFS this weekend, although a few of the
ensembles did pick-up on the cold air. The operational GFS does not
dig the southern stream energy as much as the ECMWF.
Operational GFS has hinted at interesting weather Tue/Wed (22nd/23rd)
respectively. However, I'm not inclined to give it much credit right
now. Ensembles are quite scattered at that time period, which seems
to have a lot to do with the eastern Atlantic Omega Block. Cold air
seems to be a given, although the cross polar flow cuts-off this week
across the lower 48.
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