Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 23 – 29, 2009.
Valid: 11/23/2009.

Highlights:

– Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday into Sunday.
Cold fronts are expected Monday night, Wednesday night, and Sunday
morning. Slight chance of snow is possible in the panhandle region
Sunday night.

– Temperatures will be in the low 60s today, mid 50s Tuesday, upper
50s Wednesday, low 50s Thursday, upper 50s Friday-Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 5%

Discussion:

Upper system will move through the region today dragging a cold front
behind it. Lack of moisture will result in limited precipitation for
Oklahoma. Southeast areas do stand a better chance later tonight as
the cold front moves through that area. Upper ridge will remain to
the west as another shortwave trof dives southward towards the region.
This should also have limited moisture due to trajectory and
northwest flow aloft. It will bring in a reinforcing shot of cool air
late Wednesday. Closed upper system to our east will shift east as
the ridge moves over Oklahoma. This will provide a few quiet days
until a southwest U.S. shortwave trof takes shape. This one may
provide a more favorable environment for rain across the state. POPs
are added for late Saturday into Sunday. GFS shows 540 thickness line
in NW OK as surface – 500mb RH matchup over the panhandle region. I
have added a slight chance of snow for this area, but confidence is
low due to model disagreement. The ECMWF is farther west with the
upper system and would seemingly result in a cold/dry frontal passage.
This would be as the northern stream system shifts east and the
southern stream cuts off over Arizona. As such, the forecast for
Sunday is low confidence.

Stayed with GFS MOS through the week.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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